ÉCONOMIE :
Rethinking macro policy
(Vox)
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The global crisis forced economic policymakers to react in ways not anticipated by the pre-crisis consensus on how macroeconomic policy should be conducted. Here the IMF’s chief economist and colleagues (i) review the main elements of the pre-crisis consensus, (ii) identify the elements which turned out to be wrong, and (iii) take a tentative first pass at outlining the contours of a new macroeconomic policy framework.
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ÉCONOMIE :
Bernanke à la Fed : plutôt pas mal…
(Telos)
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Fin janvier le Sénat américain devra décider du renouvellement du mandat de M. Bernanke à la tête de la Réserve fédérale américaine. Quel bilan peut-on dresser de son action au terme d’un mandat pour le moins agité ?
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ÉCONOMIE :
Not all bubbles present a risk to the economy
(The Financial Times)
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There is increasing concern that we may be experiencing another round of asset-price bubbles that could pose great danger to the economy. Does this danger provide a case for the US Federal Reserve to exit from its zero-interest-rate policy sooner rather than later, as many commentators have suggested? The answer is no.
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ÉCONOMIE :
Misdiagnosing the crisis: The real problem was not real, it was nominal
(Vox)
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Do most macroeconomists hold views of this crisis that are entirely at variance with modern monetary economics? This column says that tight monetary policy caused the crisis. Economists seem not to believe what they teach about the fallacy of identifying tight money with high interest rates and easy money with low interest rates.
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ÉCONOMIE :
Central Banks - The monetary-policy maze
(The Economist)
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The simple rules by which central banks lived have crumbled. A messier, more political future awaits
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ÉCONOMIE :
Trichet Faces Biggest Split as ECB President Over Policy Tools
(Bloomberg)
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Jean-Claude Trichet is facing the biggest split on the European Central Bank’s Governing Council in his six years as president.
Months after other central banks cut their key interest rates close to zero and started pumping money into their economies, the ECB’s 22-member council is still divided over whether to follow suit. The stand-off has delayed new measures to stem the euro region’s deepest recession since World War II. …
ÉCONOMIE :
Etats-Unis : la Fed prend tous les risques
(Alternatives Economiques)
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La politique menée actuellement par la banque centrale américaine vise à lutter à tout prix contre la déflation et le chômage, ce qui est à son honneur. Mais le prix à payer en termes de stabilité monétaire internationale risque d'être très lourd.
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ÉCONOMIE :
Fed Cuts Key Rate to a Record Low
(The New York Times)
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The Federal Reserve entered a new era on Tuesday, lowering its benchmark interest rate virtually to zero and declaring that it would now fight the recession by pumping out vast amounts of money to businesses and consumers through an expanding array of new lending programs. …
FINANCE :
The case for negative interest rates now
(The Financial Times)
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A conundrum has long been known to monetary economists, but only comes into the open during the once in a quarter-of-a-century type of recession apparently plaguing the global economy. …
ÉCONOMIE :
Interest rates - The race to zero
(The Economist)
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The Bank of England slashes interest rates to their lowest level since 1955; the ECB cuts too
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ÉCONOMIE :
Le beurre et l’argent du beurre … la nouvelle recette du “Livret A”
(Friedland, le blog de la CCIP)
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(...) la persistance d’une illusion nominaliste : on préfère avoir 4% de taux d’intérêt nominal avec une inflation à 3,5% que 3% avec une hausse des prix à 1,5%. C’est idiot, mais c’est comme ça ! …
ÉCONOMIE :
How Much Will the Fed Cut?
(Wall Street Journal)
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The Federal Reserve is likely to cut its interest-rate target at a two-day meeting Tuesday and Wednesday. But central bank officials, while leaving the door wide open to further reductions from the current 1.5% federal funds rate, have done little to signal the size of their move.
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FINANCE :
Les gouvernements auront-ils assez de munitions pour recapitaliser les banques ?
(Le blog de Laurent Guerby)
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Comment expliquer qu’on trouve rapidement plusieurs dizaines de milliards d’euros pour sauver les banques, alors qu’on peine à financer les 1,5 milliard que coûte le RSA ? …
ÉCONOMIE :
When the going gets tough, central banks hope for a miracle
(Willem Buiter's Maverecon)
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(...) Central banks that raise rates to fight high, rising and above-target inflation at the same time that real output growth (and perhaps even the level of real output) is falling and unemployment is rising are unpopular institutions. Much more unpopular than when rates are raised at a time when inflation is high, rising and above-target but output and employment too are high and still rising. …
ÉCONOMIE :
Jean Pisani-Ferry: "les ressources (énergie et produits agricoles) constituent désormais un frein à la croissance mondiale."
(Les coulisses de Bruxelles)
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(...) la BCE est très attentive aux effets indirects de l’inflation, ce que l’on appelle les « effets de second tour » qui sont susceptibles de s’enclencher dans la zone euro. Reste que ce n’est pas avec 25 points de base en plus qu’elle va combattre l’inflation : la décision d’hier est avant tout un signal. La BCE gère les anticipations en montrant qu’elle est prête à augmenter davantage ses taux pour casser une spirale inflationniste. …
